A decade behind EVs and twice the price – but hydrogen isn’t dead

A hydrogen ‘taskforce’ has been established to look at projects to invest in and generally steer a promising industry that has so far has conspicuously lacked a homegrown market and refuelling infrastructure to support it, on the transport side at least.

Despite BMW’s advocacy, progress in making FCEV a powertrain for cars has stalled. Currently only the Toyota Mirai saloon is offered with a fuel cell in Europe, after Hyundai wound down sales of its Nexo SUV. But even long-time hydrogen advocate Toyota could only shift 46 across the region in the nine months to the end of September, according to figures cited by Automotive News Europe.

Instead the FCEV focus is moving to commercial vehicles, with Toyota also admitting that’s where it thinks the technology's strengths best lie.

"We have tried Mirai but not been successful," said technical head Hiroki Nakajima at the recent Tokyo mobility show. "Hydrogen stations are very few and difficult to realise, so Mirai is smaller [in volume]."

The more predictable routes taken by commercial vehicles make them easier to plan a network for, Nakajima said. Toyota in Europe is about to use FCEV trucks for some logistical routes in Europe, partly to create the market for operators put in refuelling stations.

“We aren't giving up on hydrogen fuel cell products like Mirai,” said Yoshihiro Nakata, CEO of Toyota Motor Europe. “On the contrary, we believe the growing infrastructure, stimulated by wider hydrogen use, will create more compelling reasons to choose fuel cell technology in the future.”

The global network right now is lagging badly. Research from BMI, the consultancy arm of Fitch Ratings, shows that only South Korea has a hydrogen refuelling infrastructure of any note, with just over 300 filling stations serving what is currently the world’s largest hydrogen fleet, at 30,000 vehicles. 

China has around 200 filling stations for around 13,000 vehicles, and Japan is next with more than 150 serving around 6000 hydrogen vehicles.

“These ratios are way off to be viable – even South Korea’s, at 100 vehicles per station,” said Anna-Marie Baisden, head of autos and infrastructure research at BMI, during a recent press briefing.

In Europe, Germany leads the infrastructure race, with 87 hydrogen stations, according to the H2 Live online map, part of the H2 Mobility Deutschland hydrogen infrastructure company, which is funded by suppliers such as Shell and Total.

The Netherlands is next, with 16 fuelling stations.

Even for those refuelling stations already up and running, getting hold of hydrogen isn’t always easy, which in turn pushes up prices.

Plug Power, an American company that makes both fuel cells and electrolysers (the machines that make green hydrogen when powered by renewable energy), warned in its third-quarter earnings call that the price of hydrogen in California fuel stations had doubled to $30 (£24) per kilogramme and many were running dry. That’s the equivalent of around £1.70 a litre of petrol, meaning the prototype Toyota Hilux FCEV would theoretically cost around £190 to fill up for a range of 370 miles.

That will be a temporary glitch as more hydrogen production facilities come online. The demand will be led by industries whose needs can’t be fully met by renewable powered electricity to decarbonise their operations.

“All the commodities companies are looking at hydrogen - steel, mining, everybody,” said Angelina Valavina, head of EMEA natural resources and commodities at Fitch Ratings, at the same press briefing.

The increased availability of hydrogen produced to support these industries will bring in vehicle companies, Valavina predicted.

Taking the price out of fuel cells is the next hurdle on the vehicle side. Partly that’s because so few are being made.

“The high cost of the [fuel cell] stack is driven by low volume; as soon as volumes ramp up, we will get some economies of scale,” said Francesco Pignolo, chief engineer of the forthcoming Ram Promaster Hydrogen large van at Stellantis.

The high cost is compounded by the fact that fuel cell systems don’t generate enough electric power on their own so need the back-up of a battery to create a plug-in hybrid system. For example, the Vauxhall Vivaro FCEV and related vans use an 11.5kWh battery taken from Stellantis’s PHEV car range.

“This technology is more complex than BEV, because it has many more components," said Pignolo. "This drives a higher cost, for sure."

Some makers of trucks and heavy plant machinery think that the fuel cell is superfluous. The Hydrogen Engine Alliance, comprised of the likes of Daimler Truck, Claas, Isuzu, JCB, MAN, Bosch, BorgWarner and Dana, advocate just running hydrogen through regular engines to create power from combustion, rather than a chemical reaction.

“There is no need to reinvent the wheel,” asserts the Alliance on its website.

The advantage of hydrogen combustion is that business can largely continue as usual. There’s no major disruption to the combustion engine supply chain and fewer cost issues. The downside versus fuel cells is some NOx emission at the tailpipe, due to the high temperature of the combustion and reduced fuel efficiency.

The Hydrogen Engine Alliance has found an unlikely collaborator in motorsport, which also wants to keep combustion engines, albeit for more emotive reasons. For example, Le Mans wants to introduce a hydrogen category in 2026 – both fuel cell and combustion engines - with the goal of running all the top class on hydrogen by 2030. Meanwhile, governing body the FIA is looking at hydrogen as a possibility for Formula 1 from 2031.

We’ve seen Toyota race a hydrogen-combusting Toyota Corolla and go rallying with an equivalent GR Yaris, and it has said it will enter its GR H2 WEC hypercar concept under the new Le Mans regulations.

The hypercar is “intended to deliver speed, efficiency and reliability with a healthy dose of the sound [that Toyota chairman] Akio Toyoda refers to as a lullaby,” said Matt Harrison, chief operating officer of Toyota Motor Europe.