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Bold predictions for 2018
Predicting things is hard. Let's face it, pundits, pollsters and the like haven't done too well when it comes to forecasting the future in recent years. But that hasn't stopped us from pondering the future and making some bold – some might say foolish – predictions for what will happen in the car industry in the coming year.
If any of these come true then obviously remember where you read them first. And if they don't? Well, we did say they were only predictions...
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Diesel will die
Amazingly, there are people out there who don’t read Autocar. To them, they’d have read the ill-informed mainstream media headlines, or followed the implied advice of our rather confused Chancellor, and will not buy a new diesel car as they are evil and must be taxed off our roads, regardless of how relevant they remain for so many buyers, and how modern diesels are part of the short-medium term solution in improving air quality, not worsening it. But the damage has already been done: diesel sales are down drastically, and new taxation against them next year could well seal the most rapid decline for the black pump.
Mark Tisshaw, editor
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Lamborghini will set a Nurburging lap record for an SUV - and it will get challenged soon afterwards
Lamborghini is quite fond of setting lap records - whether at the Nurburgring or on Autocar’s test track. Lamborghini has just launched the Urus, its first SUV, and, well, you can see where this is going. The firm surely won’t be able to resist proving the Urus is a true Lamborghini by flinging it around the Nordschleife and setting a lap record for SUVs. And then… well, that’s when the fun really starts. Other firms with hot SUVs surely won’t resist giving it a crack. Do the Jaguar F-Pace SVR, the Jeep Grand Cherokee Trackhawk, Seat Cupra Ateca or BMW X5 M have a chance of outpacing a Urus around 14 miles of twisty German tarmac? Dunno, but I bet some of those manufacturers will try…
James Attwood, digital editor
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More people will buy cars without ever seeing them
More and more people these days find that they rarely set foot inside a shop, preferring instead to order most of their goods online. Expect this trend for mail-order to start hitting the used car market too before too long. Few used car buyers these days have the time or inclination to traipse from forecourt to forecourt, and many are intimidated by used car salespeople, so expect to see the rise of car buying services which enable you to order the car of your choice online and have it delivered to your door. They’ll offer peace of mind by bundling the car with a money-back guarantee if you decide you don’t like it within a week or two, as well as the usual warranty.
Alex Robbins, used cars editor
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Formula 1 will be reconfigured to favour race teams, not manufacturers
Ok, make that blind hope rather than realistic prediction, but some time next year F1 is going to have to decide how it wants to look in the 2020s. Does it want to remain at the mercy of car manufacturers for whom racing is a marketing exercise (and we’ve seen at Le Mans what can happen, as Audi and Porsche quit, leaving the top level of sports car racing in its most parlous state in living memory), or does it want once more to be a sport for teams that exist only to race, and fans that only want to see great looking, great sounding cars race?
It sounds so obvious, but to those who have run the sport the solution to its woes has seemed as obscure as Fermat’s Last Theorem. So, and to be clear: decimate downforce, increase mechanical grip, cut costs, get rid of hybrids, use 1000bhp V12s and H-pattern gear shifts. If you gave the fans the choice between this and the status quo I truly believe over 90 per cent would back the plan. Will it actually happen? Not a chance.
Andrew Frankel - senior contributing writer
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Three bold predictions
1: The Jaguar I-Pace (pictured) will be an early, raging success, selling out to British and possibly US-based early adopters. But the company will still fret about second-year sales when the car will need to attract more “ordinary” buyers to be truly successful.
2: Honda will finally come good in F1, making McLaren wish they’d stuck with the Japanese firm all along.
3: The furore over diesel cars will continue for a while, but towards the second half, growing education among consumers, a strengthening of residuals, a realization that we’re still two decades from their proposed “banning” and continuing concerns about the rising cost of fuel will lead fleets, at least, back to diesels.
Steve Cropley, editor-in-chief
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Elon Musk will remain unpredictable
I predict that Elon Musk will make more outrageous claims about performance and/or production that he’ll likely not be able to achieve. That’s said in good humour though, because despite Tesla’s many problems, it has also achieved an awful lot in a relatively short space of change and has been a game-changer for people’s perceptions of electric cars. I admire his willingness to be bold and outspoken, even in the face of adversity, rather than hiding behind a closed door or a spokesman like so many company bosses.
Rachel Burgess, news editor
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Tesla will be sold
Will the magic run out? There’s no doubt that Elon Musk has the Midas Touch, but the problems are mounting, from production delays to rising awareness of the quality issues that have beset the Model S, but been previously been forgiven by early adopters. With the arrival of the Model 3, Tesla wants to join the Big Time, but the investment and processes involved are proving challenging even for its deep pockets. The announcement of a new Roadster - the world’s fastest car - might have grabbed headlines but it also hinted at desperation to distract from the problems and a need to bank deposits. As a result some analysts predict the firm will run out of cash by next autumn; what price the VW Group swooping in and redeeming itself in the eyes of the US public by picking up a new-age pioneer at a knock-down price, or Toyota kick-starting its EV projects with a big cash offer?
Jim Holder, editorial director
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Apple will buy Tesla
Over the past three years Apple has discovered the hard way that developing a car isn’t simple. Interestingly, Tesla has also recently discovered something: ramping up car production at a sharp rate isn’t straightforward either, and it needs cash and mass-production expertise, all of which Apple has tons of. The two brands are very compatible, they could start selling Teslas from Apple stores, and Teslas already feature something resembling a giant iPad on the dash.
Perhaps uniquely, the Apple brand could add to Tesla’s lustre - if it was bought by a traditional car company, it could wreck Tesla’s image. The $60bn cost would be spare change for Apple, and would release Mr Musk plenty of money to spend on his real dream: getting to Mars.
Tom Evans, senior consulting editor
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Bangers will become fashionable
This is a trend I’ve noticed taking place for some time, but I'm convinced we’re going to face a banger revolution in 2018. In the same way that to many, wearing a vintage jacket stained with unexplainable spills is cooler than buying a new coat from Topman, owning a tatty old motor will become universally cooler than leasing a crossover.
I first became aware of this after watching a group of people gasp with excitement at the sight of an automatic 1.6-litre Peugeot 205 with tartan rags used as seat covers. Beside it, sat a shiny new Range Rover Sport. But it was the rusty French hatchback in an undesirable spec that they admired. I've seen an Austin Montego, Mk3 Vauxhall Cavalier and even Mk3 Volkswagen Golf triumph in similar situations.
Sam Sheehan, senior staff writer
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Maserati will boom or bust
Maserati has been in a bit of a precarious position of late - the Levante was designed, as an SUV, of course, to boost sales by making the brand more relevant, as its ever more critically-panned saloons falter. But sales aren’t coming, and the brand has halted its factory to keep supply in line with demand. Never a good sign. So what to do?
Well, option 1: Maserati will flounder with its current lineup of products - it’s an approach not unlikely, given the grandfatherly Granturismo has suffered this fate, stagnating instead of being replaced by the long-awaited Alfieri. Or option 2: Maserati will announce more new products in an effort to attract more buyers. Maserati has never been a hugely successful brand - it’s always played second fiddle to Ferrari - but if the rumours of a second SUV are true, all the brand would need is another sports car to get back to where it was ten years ago, and beyond.
Jimi Beckwith, staff writer
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