Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) have long been billed as a ‘bridging’ technology to help the transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) to battery electric (BEV), but predictions about how long that bridge needs to be vary dramatically. Right now, it could be shorter than most had previously thought.
While BEV sales continue to grow exponentially, PHEV figures are faltering and even declining. In this chip-restricted world, that could be a result of manufacturers prioritising their lowest-emission vehicles as they bid to avoid fines, but it could also be a sign that the (frankly lukewarm) love affair with the PHEV could be cooling.
Overall, PHEV registrations were down 12.5% across Europe in the second quarter of this year. With the exception of Spain (+11.3%), they fell in all the major markets, with the greatest drops recorded in France (17.4%), Germany (16.9%) and Italy (6.9%). UK registrations for the year to date were down 11.9% year on year.
This in part highlights a quirk of human nature, which has long erred towards avoiding a compromise. A PHEV delivers neither the best of electrification nor the best of combustion, but it also underlines the economic thinking that underpins environmental progress: PHEVs typically sell at a large premium that’s nigh-on impossible to recoup over a typical three-year ownership cycle. Grants that helped fix that equation are now rapidly being withdrawn, so better financially to be all in, or all out. Overall, with the exception of some company car drivers in some markets, PHEVs don’t add up.
Nor are they likely to be in favour with legislators forever. The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has provided data from 9000 drivers suggesting that on average, PHEVs are driven on electric power around 49% of the time by private owners; but for company car drivers, that figure falls to 15%. It’s the sort of stat that could lead to any remaining incentives being removed in the blink of an eye.
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