In this bizarre and turbulent market, it’s hard to draw black and white conclusions from new car registration figures, the challenges of supply having a far greater impact than the nuances of demand. Nevertheless, the first six months of 2022 make for interesting reading.

The first takeaway is that the year is going far worse than predicted, Russia’s war on Ukraine lobbing yet another meteorite at Planet Automotive and contributing to the UK’s worst first-half registration figures for 30 years, down 11.9% on last year.

While the manufacturers have counteracted that by squeezing greater margins than ever from the cars they can sell, the result still casts a shadow on the rest of 2022.

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Back in January, the manufacturers collectively tipped a market recovery to a smidgen under 1.9 million registrations. The reality is that it might not even match last year’s meagre 1.63m.

Most executives pinpoint 2m (still well down on 2016’s record of 2.69m) as the sign of a healthy UK industry, marking the sweet spot between balancing supply, demand and profitability (although rising material costs no doubt threaten even that equation).

With today’s troubles likely to be eclipsed by an economic recession, it might be some time before the wish becomes a reality.

Winners? It’s all relative in this market, but in volume terms, MG (25,073, +84% year on year) leads the good – nay, jaw-dropping – news, its great-value EVs putting it above Land Rover (22,905), Mini (22,246), Skoda (22,805) and Volvo (19,184), with the likes of Citroën (15,115), Mazda (11,619), Renault (14,845) and Seat (12,787) now far in its wake.

Elsewhere, significant upticks were recorded by Dacia (+76% after a so-so 2021), Porsche (+43% and presumably aided by wide profit margins earning it first dibs on the Volkswagen Group’s chips), Tesla (+40% after the Model Y’s arrival), Hyundai and Kia (+31% and +27% and seemingly doing everything right) and Fiat (+18% with its new 500 EV).

Smaller-volume success stories come from Polestar (+72%), Cupra (+60%), Bentley (+48%) and Maserati (+23%).

Losers? Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz fell 21%, 18% and 22%, reflecting similar supply issues. Land Rover’s 37% slump is notable. Ford’s Fiesta shortage continues to bite, leaving it 19% down.

Seat (-51%), Volkswagen (-35%) and Skoda (-31%) bore the brunt of the wiringloom shortages when the war began. In that context, rivals Nissan (-15%), Citroën (-11%), Vauxhall (-11%), Peugeot (-8%) and Toyota (-4%) look to be doing okay.