The volume of ICE cars entering the used car market is set to decline by as much as 69% by 2028 as car makers prioritise EV sales to hit government-legislated targets.
This forecast, from Cox Automotive, also calls on dealers to “prepare now” or be left behind as more EVs begin to trickle into the used car parc, replacing the more sought-after ICE cars.
Dealers will also start to fight for the most in-demand stock, predicts Cox – especially as its data shows that 3.1 million fewer cars have been made since 2020 than in the four years preceding it, due to Covid.
The forecast, which compared the previous four years of new and used car sales with the upcoming four years, also picked out other standout topics, such as how the car parc will change, why hybrids should be the key target for dealers and the future of diesel.
Prepare now or be left behind
“If you’re a dealer looking now at a forecourt that’s 90% ICE vehicles, consider how that will look 12 months from now and another year on from then, knowing that the availability of ICE vehicles is shrinking at a rate of 10-16% a year going forward. Can you sustain that stock profile?” asked Cox’s insight director, Philip Nothard.
He said those who don’t risk being overtaken by those who do, reasoning: “The numbers can’t be ignored.”
Those numbers predict that by 2028, ICE cars’ share of registrations (excluding hybrids) will drop from 71% to just 38%.
Despite the warning, Cox predicts that the used market will grow by as much as 11% by 2028. This means that those who act now to target EV stock could be rewarded, especially as Cox expects the powertrain’s registrations will grow 160% on 2020-2023 to 1.4 million (a 34% share, up from today’s 13%).
Nearly new ICE cars to be “long gone”
While they continue to be the most sought-after powertrain in the used market (taking 94.3% of sales in 2023, according to the SMMT), ICE vehicles in the 0-4 years old bracket will be “long gone” before sales of new examples are banned in 2035.
Key to this is car makers moving away from combustion and investing in fully electric line-ups (Vauxhall, for example, will go EV-only by 2028) and legislation (the ZEV mandate requires that a rising proportion of new cars sold are electric).
Nothard said: “Multiple factors, not least legislative direction, have [made] the proportion of petrol and diesel car registrations decline year on year with increasing velocity and a level of consequence that I don’t think has been widely appreciated.
“Today’s market for cars aged 0-4 years differs significantly from 2020 and will contrast even more so in 2028.
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